Is Russia Undergoing Monumental Geopolitical Shift?

Is Russia undergoing monumental Geopolitical shift?

Ira Singh
6 Aug’23

In a historic turn of events, Russia is currently undergoing what experts are calling its most significant geopolitical shift in over three centuries. The ramifications of this transformation are expected to reverberate across the international stage, altering the balance of power and potentially reshaping global alliances.

Since the reign of Peter the Great in the early 18th century, Russia’s geopolitical stance has largely remained consistent, with a focus on territorial expansion, influence in neighboring regions, and a cautious relationship with Western powers. However, recent developments suggest a departure from this traditional approach.

The choice of St. Petersburg to host last weeks Russia-Africa summit was no accident. It was a symbolic move.

Last week’s Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg was a landmark event in Moscow’s foreign policy concept and practice. Not so much because it brought scores of African leaders and senior officials to the country. The first summit, four years ago in Sochi, featured even more African heads of state. Also, it is not solely because its agenda expanded beyond economics and included a humanitarian dimension: this is important, but this isn’t all.

Essentially, the meeting, with the bureaucratic preparation and the wide public coverage it has received within Russia, testifies to a sea change in Moscow’s worldview and international positioning toward the world’s rising non-Western majority, as laid down in the recently adopted Foreign Policy Concept.

St. Petersburg, renowned for its imperial history, architectural splendor, and cultural legacy, serves as a living testament to Russia’s rich heritage and global influence. By hosting the Russia-Africa Summit within its historic walls, Russia sends a powerful signal of its commitment to engaging with African countries on a platform that draws from both regions’ historical legacies. This choice subtly highlights the historical ties that have existed between Russia and Africa, rooted in decades of political, economic, and cultural interactions.

Furthermore, St. Petersburg’s status as a northern port city opens a symbolic gateway for increased collaboration and connectivity between the two regions. Just as St. Petersburg historically served as Russia’s window to Europe, the choice of this city as the summit’s venue speaks to the aspiration of opening a new window for Russia to engage more deeply with Africa in the contemporary global landscape.

Eurocentrism, of course, is still deeply embedded in the Russian elite’s thinking and aspirations. Nevertheless, the failure of Russia’s long travails of Western integration in the wake of the demise of the Soviet Union has now exploded into the proxy war against the United States and NATO in Ukraine. This has produced a historic shift in Moscow’s policies, comparable to the time of Peter the Great in its significance, though in a wholly different direction. For the foreseeable future, the universe of Russia’s foreign policy will remain divided in two large parts: the house of foes including Europe, North America, and the rest of the Anglosphere, and the house of friends elsewhere. The dividing line between the two is a country’s position in relation to the sanctions regime against Russia.

Africa, in this regard, is largely on the right side of that divide. 49 nations out of the continent’s 54 were represented in St. Petersburg. True, only 17 of them participated at the top level. No longer a curious and skeptical observer, as during the Sochi summit four years ago, the West this time made a determined effort, advising, cajoling or threatening African leaders against going to Russia and dealing directly with President Putin. As a matter of fact, Western pressure scored some points (the number of top leaders in St. Petersburg was about half of what it was in Sochi), but failed to undercut the event. What was lost in the status of representation was compensated in intensity of interaction. The amount of time Vladimir Putin personally invested in the event – that actually lasted three days rather than two – was impressive and noteable.

Furthermore,the need to counter Western accusations of Russia’s responsibility for the spike in food prices following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal (while conveniently ignoring the fact that promises to Moscow to end the Western blockage of Russia’s agricultural exports were never kept) made the Kremlin go beyond the usual verbal rebuttal. At the summit, Putin not only promised to deliver grain free of charge to five of Africa’s poorest nations, but announced plans to expand commercial shipping and to build logistics by sea and air linking Russia to Africa, create a hub in Africa for Russian trade, and expand Russia’s share of African food imports. As for dealing with Western propaganda, Moscow envisages a major expansion of the Russian media presence on the continent. The idea is that Russians and Africans need to have the means of learning about each other directly, rather than through non-neutral intermediaries in London, Paris, or New York.

Russia certainly has its work cut out for it. Having abandoned the Soviet Union’s rich legacy in Africa in the early 1990s, Moscow faces strong competition there. Compared to China’s Africa trade ($280 billion), or America’s ($60 billion), Russia’s is a puny $18 billion. However, Moscow can do much better. The summit in St. Petersburg focussed on a number of areas, from food security to healthcare and pharma to nuclear energy and security assistance. Of particular importance is education and IT. Since the early 1960s, Moscow’s Lumumba University has been a flagship for training African professionals in Russia. After the break-up of the Soviet Union, the school lost much of its luster. But this is now changing and the number of stipends for Africans to study in Russia is being tripled, and many Russian universities are encouraged to seek cooperation partners in Africa.

The selection of St. Petersburg as the host city for the Russia-Africa Summit was far from accidental; it was a carefully orchestrated move rich with symbolism and strategic intent. By marrying historical significance with contemporary relevance, St. Petersburg provided the perfect backdrop for a summit that seeks to chart a new course in Russia-Africa relations. As the summit’s echoes continue to reverberate, it is clear that this symbolic choice will leave an indelible mark on the trajectory of cooperation between these two dynamic and diverse regions.