Russia Faces Dilemma as It amasses $147 Billion in Rupees: What to Do Next?

Russia Faces Dilemma as It amasses $147 Billion in Rupees: What to Do Next?

Ira Singh
3 June’23

In an unexpected turn of events, Russia finds itself grappling with a massive accumulation $147 billion in Indian rupees .The Russian government, caught off guard by this surplus, now faces the perplexing question of what to do with this enormous sum of money.

India has emerged as one of the top buyers of Russian oil after Moscow invaded Ukraine. Historically allies, the two countries are settling a greater share of the trade in national currencies after Russia was cut off from the US dollar-dominated global payments systems.

Though it seems like a win-win situation for everybody, there is a problem. Russia does not know how to reap the benefits of this trade, according to recent reports.

India and Russia, long-standing strategic partners, have found themselves back at the drawing board as they seek to redefine and reinvigorate their bilateral relationship. According to official report,Moscow is currently accumulating $1 billion in rupee assets each month that remain stranded outside the country, primarily due to the lopsided trade relationship.Every quarter, the trade imbalance is likely to generate the equivalent of $2 billion to $3 billion that Russia can’t use. Over the course of 2022, the amount would have added to estimated $147 billion in net foreign assets built up abroad, the report added.

Experts believe, one of the ways out is to establish various payment mechanisms, including investments in India’s capital markets by Russian entities.

However, the solution is still not simple as Russia cannot use the entire tranche as India has restrictions over capital flows by foreign investors.

The other option is to use currencies of a third country such as China’s yuan or UAE’s dirham. Though an agreement on such a solution is highly unlikely,

What Next:Will India increase Oil imports?

Even if India wanted to increase its oil imports, Moscow decreasing the discount on oil prices has done no favour to bolster that sentiment. Steep discounts that New Delhi enjoyed through most of FY23 have plunged due to Chinese demand and a cut at the oil producers’ end, recent reports claimed.

What comes Next:India faces ‘Loss of Steep Discounts’ on Russian Crude Oil due to China’s growing demand

India, a major importer of Russian crude oil, is encountering a significant challenge as it confronts the loss of steep discounts previously enjoyed on these imports. The changing dynamics of the global oil market, particularly China’s surging demand for Russian oil, have led to a reduction in the preferential pricing India once received. This development has left Indian authorities grappling with the need to explore alternative sourcing strategies and mitigate the impact on their energy security and economy.

During FY23, by providing discounts amidst the Ukraine conflict, Russia became a significant provider of oil to Indian refiners for the first time. As a result, in the 11 months leading up to February of the previous fiscal year, India imported crude oil worth $27 billion from its strategic partner, placing the Russian Federation in second place for Indian oil imports, official reports claimed.